So I was blog bouncing, and ran into this Economic Student Who’s blog is Cheap Talk, and he did a little thing on odds of winning on a Roll up to win from Tim Hortons.

“So we know:
Dollar value of prizes (V): $35 417 104
Number of contest cups (N): 282 493 000
Number of winning cups (W): 31 381 858

And we can figure out:
The odds of winning (W/N): 11.1%
The average value of a win (V/W): $1.13
The expected value of a contest cup (W/N)*(V/W) or (V/N): $0.125 ”

Click Here to Read his full report